A Gale of Creative Destruction
The Coming Economic Boom, 1992-2020
Deftly attacking by logic and statistics the dominant pessimism concerning future US economic and military power, Ross instead sees greater progress over the next two or three decades than during the last--a fifth rising phase of a Kondratiev cycle. The central force will consist of a surging rate of technological advance resulting from such innovations as the electronic computer in combination with solid state application; energy-related superconductivity and fusion; biotechnology and space; etc...An excellent, sprightly, and scholarly reply to recent doomsayers. Choice This groundbreaking work challenges pessimistic views of the U.S. economy, arguing instead that the U.S. is on the brink of a radical economic and social transformation, primarily caused by technological advance. According to Ross, the American economy, like other market-oriented economies, is subject to long waves, or cycles. In the early 1990s, he asserts, the U.S. economy will experience the beginning of a rising phase of a long wave, with the economy growing for two or three decades. The fundamental underlying cause of the booming economy will be the momentum associated with an unprecedented rate of technological advance; it will be associated with an increase in the standard of living of the average American beyond current expectations. Written in a style accessible to both scholars and educated lay readers, A Gale of Creative Destruction is an important counterweight to the recent spate of books which posit the impending collapse of the U.S. economy. Ross takes a unique approach to the subject by integrating structural change in the American economy with technological advance in an international setting. To build his case, he analyzes the historical long waves the U.S. economy has already seen and examines the technological advances such as superconductivity and biotechnology. He shows that such major innovations have coincided with the rising phase of long waves. He also explores changes in the workforce, the diminution of racial and gender discrimination, the increasing interdependence of the world's economies, and the tremendous strides being made toward more democratization and more vibrant market-driven economies, arguing that each of these factors will act to help fuel economic growth in the 1990s and beyond. Based on his analysis, Ross concludes that optimism about the economic future is more than warranted and that today's children will be significantly better off than their parents.