Risk Management Technologies
With Logic and Probabilistic Models
Topics in Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
This book presents intellectual, innovative, information technologies (I3-technologies) based on logical and probabilistic (LP) risk models. The technologies presented here consider such models for structurally complex systems and processes with logical links and with random events in economics and technology.
The volume describes the following components of risk management technologies: LP-calculus; classes of LP-models of risk and efficiency; procedures for different classes; special software for different classes; examples of applications; methods for the estimation of probabilities of events based on expert information. Also described are a variety of training courses in these topics.
The classes of risk models treated here are: LP-modeling, LP-classification, LP-efficiency, and LP-forecasting. Particular attention is paid to LP-models of risk of failure to resolve difficult economic and technical problems. Amongst the discussed procedures of I3-technologies are the construction of LP-models, LP-identification of risk models; LP-risk analysis, LP-management and LP-forecasting of risk.
The book further considers LP-models of risk of invalidity of systems and processes in accordance with the requirements of ISO 9001-2008, LP-models of bank operational risks in accordance with the requirements of Basel-2, complex risk LP-models for preventing ammunition depot explosions, enterprise electric power supply systems, debugging tests of technical systems, etc. The book also considers LP-models of credit risks, securities portfolios, operational risks in banking, conteraction of bribes and corruption, etc.
A number of applications is given to show the effectiveness of risk management technologies. In addition, topics of lectures and practical computer exercises intended for a two-semester course “Risk management technologies” are suggested.
1. Fundamentals of risks management technologies
2. Building LP-risk models of LP-modeling class
3. Building LP-risk model of LP-classification class
4. Building LP-risk models of LP-efficiency and LP-forecasting classes
5. LP-analysis of risk and efficiency in systems
6. LP-management of risk and efficiency
7. LP-forecasting of risk and crisis in systems
8. Software for risks management technologies
9. Axioms and definitions of risks management technologies
10. Risk management technology of building company
11. Risk management technology of transport company
12. Risks management technologies for analysis of company efficiency
13. Credit risks management technology
14. Portfolio risk management technology
15. Risks management technology of company management
16. Logical probabilistic models of banks operational risks
17. Risks management technologies of counteracting bribery and corruption
18. Invalidity risks management technologies of systems for standard ISO 9001-2008
19. Risks management technologies of restaurant
20. Risks management technology for insurance of fire hazardous objects
21. Risks management technology for a bank
22. Assessment of events probabilities on expert information
23. Training course: Risks management technologies
24. Risks management technologies as business object