This book reviews the uses and abuses of microsimulation models-large, complex models that produce estimates of the effects on program costs and who would gain and who would lose from proposed changes in government policies ranging from health care to welfare to taxes. Volume 1 is designed to guide future investment in modeling and analysis capability on the part of government agencies that produce policy estimates. It will inform congressional and executive decision makers about the strengths and weaknesses of models and estimates and will interest social scientists in the potential of microsimulation techniques for basic and applied research as well as policy uses. The book concludes that a "second revolution" is needed to improve the quality of microsimulation and other policy analysis models and the estimates they produce, with a special emphasis on systematic validation of models and communication of validation results to decision makers.

Spezifikationen

Sprache

Englisch

Autor

National Research Council
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
Committee on National Statistics
Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
Panel to Evaluate Microsimulation Models for Social Welfare Programs

Erscheinungsjahr

1991

Format

Buch (Softcover)

Anzahl Seiten